In case you were wondering, yes, I took "incumbent" from the thesaurus. And this isn't a speculation blog.
I know as well as many that the Oscar's don't really matter aside from increasing ticket/dvd sales and rentals. The Academy rarely gets it right with whatever they choose as "Best Picture" for any given year. That's not to say that any of those films that won were shit, they're usually good-to-great films (aside from
Crash, which was garbage water printed celluloid). I think they have their place, they bring attention to some of the better foreign films and documentaries of the year (even if they wimp out in those categories too) as well as some of the domestic ones that the casual movie-goer would have originally avoided. I don't hate the Oscar's, I do think it's celebrating film more than say, the Grammy's do for music.
I'm not going to speculate who's going to win this year other than "Best Picture," we've already seen plenty of those posts. This isn't terribly original either, but I'm going to point out what they've gotten wrong in the last ten years as far as their big award goes... soooo, here goes nothing!
2013
12 Years A Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf Of Wall Street
This year I'm a bit torn, they already got something wrong by leaving
Before Midnight and
Inside Llewyn Davis out of the category.
American Hustle is probably going to win (undeservedly so), I like it a lot but it was one of David O. Russell's weakest films.
The Wolf Of Wall Street should win because it did a far more effective job executing what Hustle was about, as well as being better and more funny movie. To be honest, I wouldn't mind seeing
Gravity win either. It was one of the best genre films I've ever seen and a technical masterpiece.
Verdict (what should win):
The Wolf Of Wall Street. As far as American films go, I don't think there's a more relevant film nominated right now. Especially in a year full of films based around capitalism, greed, and excess
(The Bling Ring, Springbreakers, American Hustle, The Great Gatsby, etc..), this one succeeds and still achieves more. And why award
American Hustle when it's a Scorsese knock-off anyways? I love films that draw heavy inspiration from Scorsese's work,
Boogie Nights is one of my five favorite films but
American Hustle doesn't even compare to the best films in that category.
2012
Argo (bold means it won that year)
Amour
Beasts Of The Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life Of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
I admit, this wasn't my best year either. I've still have yet to see
Amour or
Lincoln.
The 2012 ceremony already failed by leaving
The Master and
Moonrise Kingdom out of the category. Half of films already nominated should have won over
Argo, don't get me wrong, I liked the movie but I really doubt people are going to have thoughtful discussions about it 10-15 years from now. Shouldn't those kinds of films be the ones that win? Sure, you can't really predict if a piece of art will survive and be important years down the line, but it's also not hard to assume which ones probably will be. If I had to choose out of those based on what I enjoyed the most,
Django Unchained should have won. It was more exciting and tense than
Argo by a long shot, the script was better and it was probably the most fun out of any movie that year.
Zero Dark Thirty was a better thriller than
Argo was even. Still though...
The Master.
What should have won:
The Master (Hypnotic, gorgeous, surreal, and ambiguous. This is going to be one of those films that people will write about forever and lectures will be based around it.).
2011
The Artist
The Descendents
Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight In Paris
Moneyball
The Tree Of Life
War Horse
Geez, what an incredibly boring nominees list.
Extremely Loud and
The Help? Really? I love how they nominate these middle of the road, bland feel-good movies to get more viewers for the television broadcast and still fail to get people to watch the Oscar's. While
Drive was my favorite film from 2011, the one that deserved it was
The Tree Of Life. So there. I haven't seen
The Artist though, so maybe my opinion would be different?
What should have won:
The Tree Of Life (It was the most unique film experience of the year, it had dinosaurs and outer space. Not to mention Terrence Malick's uncanny ability to compose perfect shots that resonate and make you feel something more than any of the manipulative shit from the oscar-bait films.)
2010
The King's Speech
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Another tough year, everything nominated was excellent and one of the few times where they got most of the nominees right. Except for the winner. I really enjoyed The King's Speech but it's one of the most safe choices I've ever seen win.
The Social Network, Winter's Bone, The Fighter, Black Swan and
Inception were all vastly superior, by a lot. That why it's hard to choose, because I feel like at least four of these films nominated are important footnotes in cinema. But honestly, what movie from this year inspired more than
Toy Story 3? For an animated film about talking toys and a second sequel, it was more honest and beautiful than anything that came out that year. This is a film that is universally loved and will be forever, and it's Pixar's best film (which is quite the feat in itself). I don't think there's been a more moving film since its release (maybe I'm a weirdo?) and I won't be surprised when it makes many appearances on the best-of decade lists when 2020 rolls around.
What should have won:
Toy Story 3 (for all the reasons I explained above.)
2009
The Hurt Locker
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
Up In The Air
The Blind Side? Fucking really? Eh, I don't even have the energy to go into that right now but it's essentially everything that's wrong with the ceremony. As satisfied as I was initially when
The Hurt Locker won, in hindsight they made the wrong choice. Now bear with me, I might change my mind as I write this blog because apparently I write what I think when I think it. YOU CHOSE TO RIDE THIS SINKING SHIP WHY JUMP NOW? The Hurt Locker is incredible. It's a truly unique war film, it's essentially a series of vignettes built around elaborate set-pieces that gradually become more and more nerve-wracking and scary, all credited to Katheryn Bigelow's fantastic direction. It's also a great character-driven film and Jeremy Renner does an amazing job.
Another unique "war" film came out that year too and it was Inglourious Basterds. While it's genes can be found in many other films like
The Dirty Dozen and
The Inglorious Bastards, Quentin Tarantino always has a knack for transforming his influences/homages into something that feels new and exciting. In a year where
Avatar was the big movie "event" (at least that's what they were forcing down our throats),
Inglourious Basterds is the one that really ingrained itself into people's minds (in my fantasy world, maybe?). Christoph Waltz's brilliant performance alone is more memorable than almost anything from
Avatar. Don't get me wrong, I loved
Avatar. If I was eight years old, it would be my absolute favorite movie and the technical feats that movie accomplishes are outstanding and groundbreaking. Yet, there's still
District 9, a wholly original science-fiction film that's consistently riveting throughout it's running time and still manages to be a powerful social commentary on apartheid. And then there's the elusive
A Serious Man, one of the Coen Brothers' best films and one of their most mysterious. This is pretty tough, I'm not sure which one of these will be the most celebrated years down the line. Hmm...
What should have won:
District 9. If I was measuring films by what I enjoyed more, Inglourious Basterds would be on top. But
District 9 feels like a modern classic. It blends practical and digital effects seamlessly (like my boy,
Jurassic Park does) and it's endlessly rewatchable. Plus, things I already said above.
2008
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Okay, first of all, where's
Wall-E, The Dark Knight, Synecdoche, New York, and lot of other great films released that year? While I prefer the five nominees list and there's no reason to have it be larger, three of those films could be switched out with the ones I've mentioned.
Slumdog Millionaire was fantastic and it deserved to win out of those films, it was a feel-good movie done extremely well (thanks to Danny Boyle) and never managed to feel like Oscar-bait.
Synecdoche, New York was unrepresented at the Oscars which is almost insulting because it didn't even garner a nomination for Best Original Screenplay and it's one of Charlie Kaufman's finest work. Sure the film is a mess (which is intentional), but messy films sometimes are more interesting than the finely-tuned ones, take
Magnolia as an example. I can't think of a more ambitious film released that year, or most recent years actually. Even if this is a cliched answer, the real winner still should have been...
What the winner should have been (redundant after that last sentence, I know): The Dark Knight. Even though the film has come dangerously close to over-saturation in pop-culture, I can't think of another massive blockbuster film that brought almost unanimous appraisal from audiences and critics alike. It harbors an exceptional performance from Heath Ledger, no one will argue that his interpretation of The Joker will be considered one of the great villains in cinema. Heavily-influenced by Michael Mann's
Heat (seriously, watch them back-to-back, the pacing and atmosphere are similar), it's a compelling crime film that continues the effective examination of superhero pathos from
Batman Begins. It's a rare film that's executed so well you can believe any of the plotholes or inconsistencies in the plot, unlike say
The Dark Knight Rises. It's also one of those rare instances where a summer blockbuster based on an existing franchise feels like a singular vision from a filmmaker, and not just some product designed to make money (and it made a lot of money). It's an important film, critically and commercially, it helped raise the bar for mainstream film and it still resonates with audiences, which could be partially attributed to Heath Ledger's tragic death but it's also just one hell of a movie.
To be continued... I realized if I went back ten years, this would be too long so I'm splitting it into two parts.